Persistence Vulnerability of the African Savanna Elephant Loxodonta africana to Anthropocene Threats in East Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT Anthropogenic climate change caused by human activities reduces suitable habitats for species. This effect is especially pronounced for tropical species, where agricultural expansion and habitat degradation interact with climate‐driven stressors. Spatial conservation prioritization for vulnerable species requires species distribution modeling to evaluate effects of climate change and human pressures. We mapped the current and future extent of suitable habitat for the African Savanna Elephant, L. africana , in East Africa using an ensemble species distribution model. We built an ensemble model with 4298 presence records and 10 key environmental predictors, averaging seven algorithms. For each algorithm, 10 model replications and two thresholds were used to map suitable habitat under current and future (2050, 2070) climate scenarios. Suitable habitats' overlap with existing protected areas (PAs) was assessed that may serve as Anthropocene refugia. The results demonstrated high performance for all algorithms with an average AUC value of 0.94, with a significant difference in evaluation metrics (p < 0.05) among algorithms. We identified 887,094 and 754,737 km2 suitable habitats using the weighted mean and 10% omission‐rate thresholds, respectively. However, these suitable habitats are projected to decline on an average of 51.9% by 2050 and 52.6% by 2070. These projected suitable habitats are severely reduced and fragmented under the worst‐case climate scenario (SSP5‐8.5, 2050 and 2070), with large portions occurring outside PAs and many PAs projected to become unsuitable. Reductions in remaining suitable habitats and climatic refugia within PAs also support this conclusion. Most suitable areas outside PAs highlight the need for conservation and species management action, which is more challenging. We recommend safeguarding currently suitable habitats, even if projected to become climatically unsuitable, and protecting future suitable areas outside PAs, including stable habitats and Anthropocene refugia. This will help ensure long‐term conservation, particularly for populations at risk of local extinction.