Geopolitical Analysis of Energy Security in the Black Sea region – Challenges and Perspectives

Abstract

This paper examines the evolving dynamics of energy security in the Black Sea region, a strategically significant area at the intersection of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The research is situated within the broader context of shifting geopolitical alignments, increasing competition over energy resources, and the growing importance of diversification in energy supply routes. The main objective is to analyze the vulnerabilities and opportunities shaping regional energy security, while assessing the implications for both regional actors and external stakeholders. The study employs a combined methodological framework based on SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) and PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal) analyses. The SWOT analysis identifies internal and external factors influencing energy security capacities, while the PESTEL framework provides a comprehensive evaluation of macro-environmental determinants affecting policy and infrastructure development in the region. The findings highlight that the Black Sea region benefits from strategic transit potential and emerging offshore energy resources, representing key strengths and opportunities. However, persistent geopolitical tensions, regulatory fragmentation, and infrastructural disparities constitute major weaknesses and threats. The PESTEL analysis reveals that political instability, economic disparities, and environmental concerns – particularly related to offshore exploration – significantly impact long-term energy strategies. Additionally, technological advancements and increasing investment in renewable energy present promising avenues for enhancing resilience. In conclusion, the research underscores the critical importance of regional cooperation, regulatory harmonization, and diversification of energy sources in strengthening energy security in the Black Sea. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of how geopolitical and structural factors interact in shaping energy policies and offers practical insights for policymakers aiming to mitigate risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities in this complex and strategically vital region.