Government Exports and Economic Performance in Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigated the effect of government exports on economic performance in Nigeria, focusing on oil and non-oil exports as explanatory variables and real gross domestic product (RGDP) as the key indicator of performance. The study employed annual time series data covering 1994–2024 sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, and analysis was conducted using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression technique, complemented by diagnostic and stability tests. The descriptive results revealed a steady rise in exports and output over the years, albeit with fluctuations driven largely by oil price shocks and global market conditions. The inferential analysis showed that oil exports had a positive and statistically significant effect on RGDP, underscoring the continued dominance of the oil sector in driving Nigeria’s growth trajectory. Conversely, non-oil exports had a positive but statistically insignificant effect, reflecting persistent structural weaknesses and low competitiveness in the sector despite ongoing diversification efforts. The post-diagnostic tests confirmed the reliability and stability of the model. Based on these findings, the study concludes that while oil exports remain central to economic performance, non-oil exports have yet to demonstrate significant contributions. It recommends targeted policy interventions to boost non-oil exports and deepen diversification to ensure long-term, inclusive, and sustainable growth