METIS-AURO: Prospective Programme 2000–2046. Structural Capacity, Generational Reproduction and the P14 Extension

Abstract

METIS-AURO is a long-horizon strategic foresight framework designed to observe, compare and progressively model structural capacity, resilience and systemic transformation. This report extends the previous thirteen-dimensional architecture by introducing P14: Generational Reproduction of Capacity (GRC), a forward-looking dimension intended to evaluate whether a society can reproduce, retain and renew the human, technical and institutional capabilities on which its current structural capacity depends. The framework distinguishes potential, mobilizable and effective capacity and organizes fourteen dimensions spanning demography, economic power, financial stability, industrial capacity, science and technology, military capacity, energy security, food and resources, institutional quality, social cohesion, social expectations, geostrategic position, systemic influence and generational reproduction. P14 is constructed around five components: demographic replacement, education and the technical pipeline, human health and viability, retention and renewal of skilled capacity, and future orientation. Its influence is explicitly time-dependent, reflecting the delayed transmission from education, health and demographic renewal to technological, industrial and economic capacity. The report presents comparative structural trajectories for 2000–2046 with and without P14. Historical values are calibrated proxy reconstructions, while post-2026 values are illustrative scenarios rather than deterministic forecasts. Each actor is rebased to its own 2000 level; therefore the curves represent trajectories of transformation rather than absolute rankings of power. The purpose of METIS-AURO is not to declare predetermined geopolitical outcomes, but to provide a transparent, falsifiable and progressively data-driven architecture for early warning, scenario comparison, structural diagnosis and strategic adaptation over generational horizons.