INVESTMENT MARKET AND EXTERNAL SHOCKS: A STUDY OF THE INTERRELATION ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIA BONDS MARKET

Abstract

In the context of increasing turbulence in the global economic environment, the study of the adaptation mechanisms of the government bond market to exogenous shocks is of key scientific and practical importance. The increasing frequency of large-scale external shocks, such as geopolitical conflicts and sanctions regimes, global pandemics, sharp changes in the exchange rates of leading central banks (in particular, the Fed's tightening cycles), and climate crises, is transforming traditional relationships and creating new sources of systemic risk. The relevance of a thorough analysis of this issue is driven by several interconnected factors. First, external shocks directly affect the fundamental parameters of the public debt market, causing spikes in volatility, rapid revaluation of risk premiums, and liquidity destabilization. Secondly, in the era of high synchronization of global financial markets, shock impulses are quickly transmitted through the demand of foreign investors, capital flows, and exchange rate fluctuations, which requires national regulators to develop precise instruments for smoothing out excessive instability. Thus, the scientific understanding of the government bond market's response to exogenous shocks goes beyond theoretical interest and forms the necessary empirical and methodological basis for developing more sustainable debt management architectures and stress-resistant investment strategies.