COVID-19 modeling and optimal control strategies with vaccination, healthcare management and social intervention

Abstract

In this paper, a compartmental COVID-19 model based on the disease symptoms and health conditions of the individuals is proposed and analyzed, taking into account social interventions (such as mask awareness, hand sanitizer use, social distance in extended family or restriction on relatives' visits and media awareness promotion), lockdown policy and vaccination. In addition, an optimal rational intervention strategy is determined in order to control the disease, that is, to minimize the asymptomatic, severe symptomatic and hospitalized cases. The validation of the model is examined by analyzing the behavior of the solutions and fitting the model to the daily new infected cases reported in India from 24 March 2020 to 09 September 2021. The stability criteria is established in terms of the epidemic threshold parameter. Several numerical simulations are performed to investigate the impact of the social intervention factors and vaccination process. The influence of an effective lockdown policy on the epidemic scenario is illustrated. Furthermore, the effects of the disease transmission rates and social intervention measure on the basic reproduction number are numerically demonstrated.