Ecological Debt and Food Security: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Indonesian Provinces

Abstract

Research Originality: This study positions multidimensional environmental quality (air, water, and marine ecosystems) as a key determinant of food security within a unified provincial framework, employing the GMM approach to address persistence and endogeneity. Research Objectives: To assess the influence of environmental quality on food security across Indonesian provinces and identify socio-economic barriers to regional resilience. Research Methods: Using panel data from 34 provinces during 2019–2024, the study examines the Food Security Index (FSI) in relation to the Environmental Quality Index (EQI), its sub-indices, and socio-economic controls, including agricultural GRDP, poverty, and unemployment. Empirical Results: Food security exhibits strong persistence, indicating path dependence. Overall environmental quality has a negative short-run effect, reflecting an ecological debt pattern driven by resource exploitation. In contrast, water and air quality improve food security, while poverty and unemployment significantly constrain outcomes. Implications: Indonesia should shift from a production-oriented to a resilience-oriented food security strategy by promoting sustainable intensification, improving water and marine resource management, and strengthening social protection. Given regional heterogeneity, place-based policies are essential to enhance long-term food system resilience and achieve SDG 2. JEL Classification: Q56, Q18, C23, O13