Climate‐change‐amplified wind‐related economic losses during Cyclone Harry (2026)

Abstract

Cyclone Harry affected Sicily, Calabria, and Sardinia between January 19 and 22, 2026, producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal impacts across the central Mediterranean. We assess how the associated meteorological conditions differ between the present climate (1988–2025) and a cooler past (1950–1987) using the multivariate ClimaMeter analog attribution protocol applied to the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5). The circulation changes indicate a deepening of the sea‐level pressure minimum over the cyclone core, while the 500‐hPa geopotential height field exhibits positive anomalies over the eastern part of the domain. However, the magnitude of both anomalies remains small compared with the anomalies associated with the event itself. In contrast, surface signals are more robust. Near‐surface temperature is about 1– over the whole domain, and wind speeds increase by about 4–6 kmh over the Ionian sector and Sicily. Precipitation changes remain spatially heterogeneous and less robust. Internal variability appears to play a negligible role, as none of the indices examined shows statistically significant differences between the two periods. Combining wind hazard with population and GDP data, we estimate that about 2.9 million people and 63.58 billion USD in GDP were exposed to climate‐intensified wind conditions. Using a simple damage allocation model and an illustrative total damage of 1 billion USD, about 90 [84,95] million USD are attributed to climate‐driven wind amplification.