Development of a model for assessing the resource capacity of higher education to reproduce human capital in Ukraine under martial law

Abstract

The object of this research is the process of development and assessment of Ukrainian higher education system’s resource capacity to ensure the regeneration of human capital under martial law. Existing approaches primarily assess nominal indicators of resource provision without analyzing the mutual influence of changes in external environmental factors. The research developed an integral index of resource capacity of higher education (IIRCHE), which, unlike others, combines financial, human resources and wage competitiveness components, also taking into account indicators in both nominal and real terms. The integrated index enables to identify a mismatch between the dynamics of nominal indicators and the higher education system’s capacity to reproduce human capital, due to the systematic lag in the nominal funding growth rate relative to changes in the funds real purchasing power. It has been justified that the impact of the war factor has strengthened such a negative trend. With a nominal yearly increase in expenditure by 3,755 UAH per student, real wage per employee, converted to minimum wage (MW), fall by –0.38. The impact of various factors on the indicators included in the IIRCHE was assessed using regression modelling (R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.93). None of the regression models revealed a consistent impact of any single factor apart, but only through their interaction. This confirmed the validity of the systematic approach and the appropriateness of using an integrated index with a broad range of indicators. Projected scenario trajectories up to 2030 have been developed, illustrating the consequences of alternative budgetary policy options regarding the funding of higher education and its resource provision. The results obtained can be applied as an analytical basis for the annual monitoring of the higher education resource capacity.