The Impact of Renewable Energy Development on Energy Security: The Mediating Roles of Energy Portfolio Diversification and Supply Chain Resilience

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the effect of renewable energy development on energy security and to examine the mediating roles of energy portfolio diversification and supply chain resilience among energy-sector professionals in Tehran. This applied, quantitative, cross-sectional study used a descriptive-correlational design and partial least squares structural equation modeling. The statistical population comprised managers, experts, policymakers, consultants, researchers, and technical specialists employed in energy-related governmental organizations, private companies, universities, and research centers in Tehran. A total of 384 participants were selected through a multistage sampling procedure. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire measuring renewable energy development, energy portfolio diversification, supply chain resilience, and energy security on a five-point Likert scale. Content and face validity were evaluated by experts and members of the target population, while internal consistency, convergent validity, and discriminant validity were assessed using Cronbach’s alpha, composite reliability, average variance extracted, the Fornell–Larcker criterion, and heterotrait–monotrait ratios. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 27 and SmartPLS version 4. Renewable energy development had significant positive effects on energy portfolio diversification (β = 0.631, p < 0.001), supply chain resilience (β = 0.587, p < 0.001), and energy security (β = 0.238, p < 0.001). Energy portfolio diversification (β = 0.284, p < 0.001) and supply chain resilience (β = 0.387, p < 0.001) also significantly predicted energy security. The indirect effects of renewable energy development on energy security through energy portfolio diversification (β = 0.179, p < 0.001) and supply chain resilience (β = 0.227, p < 0.001) were significant, confirming complementary partial mediation. The model explained 64.5% of the variance in energy security. Renewable energy development strengthens energy security both directly and indirectly by broadening the energy portfolio and enhancing supply chain resilience, with supply chain resilience representing the stronger mediating mechanism.