Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the agricultural carbon footprint in the yellow river basin

Abstract

In the context of China’s “dual carbon goals” (carbon peak and neutrality goals) and the ecological conservation and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin (YRB), understanding the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution and the factors influencing the agricultural carbon footprint (ACF) is essential for developing effective policies to reduce agricultural carbon emission (ACE). This paper examines the spatial and temporal distribution patterns and factors influencing ACF in the YRB, using Life Cycle Assessment and the Spatial Durbin Model with panel data from 55 cities over the past 2 decades. The results show that ACE and carbon sequestration have experienced a fluctuating upward trend, while the ACF exhibits a “rise-then-decline” pattern, with high values in the central and eastern regions and low values in the west. Overall, the agroecosystem displays an ecological surplus. Meanwhile, the ACF of the YRB shows a significant positive spatial correlation with notable clustering. Additionally, ACF is positively affected by fertilizer and pesticide inputs, fiscal support for agriculture, and the level of agricultural mechanization. Conversely, factors such as urbanization level, multiple cropping index, agricultural industrial structure, and agricultural economic development level have negative effects. Therefore, based on these findings, establishing a mechanism for collaborative, cross-regional governance of the YRB could help achieve the “double carbon goals” by promoting a low-carbon agricultural transition.