A degradation index model for maintenance prediction run-to-failure in production systems

Abstract

Timely asset maintenance remains a critical challenge in Industry 4.0 environments. Predictive Maintenance aims to anticipate failures and estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL), enabling cost reduction and minimizing production downtime. However, real-world industrial scenarios are often characterized by noisy telemetry data, incomplete information about operating conditions, and weak degradation signals, which limit the effectiveness of conventional data-driven approaches. This paper proposes a methodology for RUL prediction under such challenging conditions, leveraging raw sensor telemetry without requiring detailed knowledge of machine operating characteristics. The approach introduces a novel Degradation Index, combined with a Health Index, to better represent degradation patterns. Additionally, signal preprocessing techniques, including Savitzky–Golay and Kalman filters, are applied to mitigate noise and improve data quality. The methodology integrates statistical analysis, similarity-based pattern extraction, and machine learning techniques, including Convolutional Neural Networks and Long Short-Term Memory models, for feature selection and prediction. Experiments conducted on real-world industrial datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves prediction performance, achieving high accuracy and enabling failure anticipation up to five days in advance. The results highlight the importance of feature engineering and signal processing in PdM applications, showing that combining degradation modeling with deep learning yields robust, generalizable RUL predictions, even in noisy, partially observed environments.