Methodological principles of evaluating the effectiveness of enterprise development projects

Abstract

This paper examines the methodological principles of evaluating the effectiveness of enterprise development projects under conditions of heightened economic uncertainty. It is substantiated that traditional dynamic efficiency indicators – NPV, IRR, PI, DPP – despite their methodological maturity and regulatory entrenchment, insufficiently account for managerial flexibility and the qualitative, strategic consequences of development projects, whereas relying solely on expert or multi-criteria methods reduces the reproducibility and verifiability of the assessment. Scientists abroad and at home have used several approaches to address this problem. Those ways include the options method, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, and classical discounted indicators. We organize these methods and highlight their strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Based on this, we propose a four-step model. First, we define project criteria such as financial/economic, risk, strategic, managerial flexibility, and ESG. Second, we select the evaluation method class based on the project type and its uncertainty level. Third, we evaluate alternatives using an integrated multi-criteria approach. Fourth, we confirm the results through sensitivity analysis and scenario testing. We systematize comparative characteristics of the methodological groups according to criteria for accounting for the time value of money, managerial flexibility, qualitative factors, transparency, and data requirements. The study substantiates the practical significance of the proposed methodology for supporting managerial decisions on the feasibility, scale, and sequencing of enterprise development projects under economic uncertainty. The study identifies its limitations and promising directions for further empirical testing of the methodology using materials from real development projects of Ukrainian enterprises. Keywords: project efficiency, enterprise development projects, evaluation of investment projects, real options method, multi-criteria decision-making methods, managerial flexibility, criterion space, validation of results, methodological toolkit, sensitivity analysis.