Model for estimating the fatal outcome probability after coronary artery bypass grafting

Abstract

Aim. To develop a model for assessing the fatal outcome probability after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) based on comprehensive preoperative patient characteristics. Material and methods . The model of fatal outcome-associated factors after CABG was developed using medical records from 1584 patients who underwent isolated CABG between 2021 and 2024. Twenty-four preoperative patient characteristics were selected, from which factors associated with fatal outcome were identified. The study endpoint was death during CABG or within 30 days after surgery. Results . Factors associated with fatal CABG outcomes were identified. At a p<0,05 level, the following factors were associated: time since the last myocardial infarction, multifocal atherosclerosis, and heart failure functional class. At a p<0,001 level, the following factors were associated: European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II score (EuroSCORE II), pulmonary hypertension, ejection fraction, unstable angina in the previous month, and class IV stable angina. The final multivariate model included three following predictors: ejection fraction, unstable angina, and class IV angina. The model's sensitivity was 87,5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 71-96,5), and specificity — 74,3% (95% CI: 72-76,5). Conclusion . Based on this study, we identified factors associated with mortality and created a logistic regression model that predicts the mortality likelihood during CABG and in the early postoperative period.