Panel Data-Based Modeling in the Relationship between Numerical Economic Development and Carbon Intensity
Abstract
As the economy rapidly develops, people's livelihood has been improved. However, simultaneously, population growth, the air quality has deteriorated. Since the economic reforms of the 1980s, China has pursued economic growth at the expense of the environment, becoming the 2nd largest economy in the process. This study examines how digital economy advancement affects carbon emission intensity and clarifies the industrial transmission mechanisms behind this effect. Based on panel data from 14 coastal provinces in China during 2012–2022, a multidimensional digital economy index is constructed from digital infrastructure, digital industrialization, industrial digitization, and digital innovation by using the entropy weight method. A panel data model is applied to estimate the direct impact of digital economy advancement on carbon emission intensity, and a mediating effect model is further used to test the roles of industrial structure rationalization and industrial upgrading. The empirical results show that digital economy advancement significantly reduces carbon emission intensity, and this inhibitory effect remains robust after controlling for population density, foreign direct investment, and energy structure. Among the four dimensions, digital infrastructure, industrial digitization, and digital innovation have considerable negative effects on carbon emission intensity, while digital industrialization does not show a considerable effect. Mechanism analysis indicates that digital economy advancement reduces carbon emission intensity by promoting industrial structure rationalization and industrial upgrading. Regional heterogeneity results further reveal that the carbon-reduction effect is more pronounced in central and western regions and in low-income areas. These findings suggest that strengthening digital infrastructure, accelerating industrial digitization, and promoting industrial upgrading can provide effective support for regional low-carbon advancement.