Quantifying the socioeconomic drivers and banditry-induced shocks to Agricultural productivity and household food security: Evidence from farming Communities in Kebbi South Senatorial District, Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the socioeconomic drivers and banditry-induced shocks affecting agricultural productivity and household food security among farming households in Kebbi South Senatorial District, Nigeria. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted, and primary data were collected from 300 households. Data were analyzed using multiple regression and ordered probit models. The results show that the linear model was statistically significant (F = 40.1) with good explanatory power (R² = 0.680). Farm size (β = 0.684) and access to credit (β = 0.437) were the most influential positive determinants of agricultural productivity, while banditry exposure (β = −0.925) exerted a strong negative effect. The preferred double-log model further confirmed these relationships, with farm size (β = 0.607) remaining the strongest positive driver and banditry exposure (β = −1.101) the most severe constraint. Household food security was measured using an ordered categorical index based on food access and consumption patterns. The ordered probit results indicated that farm size (β = 0.312) and credit access (β = 0.276) significantly improved food security, whereas banditry exposure (β = −0.521) and household size (β = −0.045) reduced it. The study concludes that both resource endowments and insecurity significantly shape productivity and welfare outcomes. It recommends integrated, security-sensitive agricultural policies that enhance access to credit, expand farm capacity, strengthen extension services, and address rural insecurity to improve household food security.