Comprehensive Assessment of Economic and Environmental Risks During Successful Cyberattacks on ICS Based on Simulation Modeling and Multi-Criteria Data Selection

Abstract

The problem of quantitative assessment of the consequences of successful cyberattacks on Industrial Control Systems (ICS) is considered. Existing approaches to cyber risk assessment in the industrial segment often do not account for the physico-chemical dynamics of processes, which complicates the calculation of real economic losses, risks to personnel, and environmental damage. This paper proposes a simulation tool that reproduces the consequences of cyber impacts on elements of industrial infrastructure. A key feature of the tool is the integration of a previously developed multi-criteria model for assessing monitoring parameters by the authors, which ensures the selection of the most informative variables and reduces the dimensionality of input data. The mathematical formulation of the simulation modeling problem, algorithms for translating cyber incidents into deviations of technological parameters, and methods for calculating economic, environmental, and safety metrics are presented. The operability of the proposed tool is confirmed by experimental studies on a virtual testbed emulating a metallurgical production process.