The Transfer Patterns and Driving Factors of China’s Trade-Embodied Carbon Emissions: An Empirical Analysis Based on MRIO and LMDI

Abstract

Using the EORA multi-regional input-output model, this study estimates the embodied carbon emissions in China's trade across 26 sectors from 2010 to 2020, dividing partners into developed and emerging/developing economies. The LMDI method decomposes changes in production- and consumption-based emissions (2001-2020) into technology, structure, and scale effects. Results show: (1) China's production-side carbon intensity declined overall but with marked sectoral divergence—manufacturing intensity dropped sharply while the electricity, gas, and water (EGW) sector remained at persistently high levels, revealing a high-carbon lock-in effect. (2) China consistently acts as a net exporter of trade-embodied carbon, with net exports concentrated in four sectors; by contrast, EGW exhibits a large carbon deficit, indicating additional carbon responsibility under production-based accounting. (3) The international carbon transfer pattern is restructuring: consumption-side sources have shifted from developed- to emerging-economy dominance, and production-side flows increasingly go to emerging economies, moving from a North-South to a North-South and South-South pattern. (4) Carbon emissions follow a "scale-driven, technology-offsetting" mode; the weakening scale effect enables peaking, but diminishing technology returns and the newly positive structure effect call for structural optimization. Sector-differentiated mitigation, carbon accounting reform, and green supply chains are suggested.