The assessment of livelihood vulnerability to climate change among urban agricultural households in Ho Chi Minh City

Abstract

Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), before merging with Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau provinces, had a population exceeding 10 million and served as one of Vietnam’s largest agricultural product consumption markets. The local agricultural sector has been strategically oriented by city authorities to adapt to urban conditions for more than a decade, with clear plans for the implementation of urban agriculture programs through 2030 and 2050. However, climate change factors are posing significant challenges, requiring adaptive adjustments to urban agricultural development strategies. Based on the survey results from 1,030 agricultural households in HCMC before the merger, as well as secondary data compiled from the agricultural sector’s statistics, this study aims to assess urban agriculture’s vulnerability to climate change. The findings show that agriculture in HCMC is considerably impacted by both urbanization and climate change conditions. An evaluation of the five livelihood capitals among urban agricultural households indicates ongoing challenges, as agricultural productivity continues to fall short of policy objectives. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) for climate change impacts on urban agriculture, as well as the five livelihood capitals, are both at moderate levels, with respective values of −0.02 and −0.08 on a scale from −1 to 1.