Exploring the impact of urban sprawl on carbon emission intensity: towards low-carbon cities under the dual-carbon goals

Abstract

Urban sprawl (US) is an inevitable trend in the process of economic development, and achieving carbon neutrality is also an essential aspect of production reform. Therefore, reducing carbon emission intensity (CEI) in the US has become an urgent issue that needs to be addressed. Based on panel data from 260 Chinese cities between 2012 and 2022, this paper uses panel models, moderation effect models, and threshold effect models to examine the effect and mechanism of the US on CEI. The empirical results show that the effect of the US on CEI follows a “U” shape, which remains robust after various tests. The moderation effect indicates that the higher the urban economic resilience, ecological resilience, and technological level, the stronger the inhibitory effect of the US on CEI. The threshold effect analysis reveals that there is a single threshold for urban economic resilience, while dual thresholds exist for urban ecological resilience and technological level. Heterogeneity analysis shows that in the central-western regions and small and medium-sized cities, the effect of the US on CEI is “U” shaped, whereas in the eastern region and large cities, the effect follows an inverted “U” shape. The article aims to explore the realization of low-carbon goals in the US, particularly how macro-level regulation can enhance urban economic, ecological resilience, and technological levels to reduce CEI.