Assessing Electric Vehicle Deployment in India’s Net-Zero Transition

Abstract

India’s road transport accounts for around 12% of India’s energy related CO2 emissions, and without strong policy intervention in place; these emissions could rise substantially when vehicle ownership increases and logistics demand expands. The uptake of EVs offers a major opportunity to decarbonise the transport sector. This paper examined the role of EVs in India’s energy transition under different climate policies, using the TIAM UCL energy systems model. It quantified the diffusion of electric vehicles and its impacts on transport sector energy demand under 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. While India had a considerable number of electric vehicles for passenger transport, around 1.9 million in 2024, the adoption of electric cars remained significantly lower than that of two and three wheelers, which accounted for the majority of EVs, with about 1.7 million vehicles. However, under climate mitigation scenarios, the model results show that India will require at least 1.3 million electric cars by 2030 and more than 20 million by 2050. Assuming an average battery capacity of 50 kWh per electric car, total battery demand could reach about 63 GWh in 2030 and 1,019 GWh in 2050 under a moderate diffusion pathway. India’s EV transition may face a complex set of challenges that extend beyond vehicle uptake and charging infrastructure, including: (1) dependence on imported critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel which are essential for battery production; (2) limited domestic battery manufacturing capacity; and (3) underdeveloped battery recycling capacity and supporting governance systems.