Integrated Physical Climate Risk Assessment for Energy Infrastructure Resilience and Adaptation

Abstract

As an energy industry, Pertamina faces climate risk consisting of transition risk and physical risk, where physical impacts increasingly influence asset integrity and operational reliability. This paper assesses physical climate risks to Pertamina operational assets across upstream exploration and production (E&P), refinery, and retail and distribution business units located in Southern Sumatra, Western Java, and Central Sulawesi. The scope focuses on identifying climate drivers and hazards, including flood, coastal inundation, landslide, maritime extreme weather, and lightning, under baseline and projection periods to support risk-informed adaptation and resilience planning for diverse energy infrastructure. The assessment integrates science-based climate analysis, hazard mapping, and Health, Safety, Security, and Environment (HSSE) risk evaluation. Historical climate data (1983–2011) and future projections (2031–2060) were downscaled to establish atmospheric and marine climate baselines for Southern Sumatra, Western Java, and Central Sulawesi. Probabilistic models were applied to map flood, coastal inundation, landslide, maritime extreme weather, and lightning hazards. Asset exposure from upstream E&P, refinery, and retail and distribution facilities was overlaid with hazard zones, followed by risk scoring using Pertamina probability-impact criteria and Risk Priority Number (RPN). Adaptation options were formulated through the PDCA-based risk management process. The results show distinct physical climate risk characteristics across business units and regions. In Southern Sumatra, upstream E&P assets are primarily exposed to flood, landslide, and lightning hazards, reflecting inland topography and increasing extreme rainfall intensity. Refinery and retail and distribution facilities in Western Java demonstrate elevated risk from coastal inundation and maritime extreme weather due to low elevation and proximity to the northern Java coastline. In Central Sulawesi, gas processing and distribution infrastructure are particularly vulnerable to combined flood and coastal hazards, amplified by projected sea level rise. Climate projections for 2031–2060 indicate an expansion of hazard extents compared with baseline conditions, increasing the number of assets categorized as medium to medium-high risk. Integrating climate hazards into HSSE risk assessment enables prioritization of adaptation measures tailored to each business unit. Recommended actions include elevation and protection of critical refinery equipment, drainage enhancement for upstream facilities, slope stabilization, coastal protection for terminals, maritime operational thresholds, and strengthened emergency preparedness. The study concludes that business-unit-specific climate risk profiling is essential to safeguard operational continuity under evolving climate conditions.