Advancing 100% renewable electricity in Tunisia: techno-economic pathways for integrating solar PV, hydropower, and pumped hydro energy storage

Abstract

Although Tunisia has a large potential for renewable energy, it is still heavily reliant on traditional biomass and fossil fuels, with each resident consuming only 0.5 MWh of electricity annually. This low level of consumption highlights the need for a long-term electrification strategy that would enable a more significant energy transformation. This study explores the path to 100% renewable energy by directing final consumption sectors toward electricity, using a daily energy balance model of Tunisia’s electrical future until 2050. Solar photovoltaic (PV) and hydroelectric power are modeled as primary energy sources, while pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) and transboundary electricity imports are used for system equilibrium. Two scenarios are analyzed for 2050, including three levels of electricity demand (2.6 and 9.1 MWh per inhabitant and annually), two hydroelectricity development trajectories (ambitious and established), and scenarios with or without electricity imports. The results show that solar photovoltaic energy is the main source of production in most scenarios, but PHES plays a crucial role in daily and seasonal equilibrium. According to the main theories put forth, the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) ranges from 17 TND/KWh to 24 TND/KWh. The sensitivity analysis revealed that photovoltaic costs, actualization rates, and hydroelectricity production scenarios are economic determinants. These results show that Tunisia’s future energy needs may be largely met by proven and developed renewable technology. These lessons are useful for long-term energy planning and provide guidance to other countries with similar low electricity consumption. They also support the realization of long-term development goals (SDG), such as SDG 13 (Fighting climate change) and SDG 7 (Clean and affordable energy).