RISK ASSESSMENT OF NORMAL OPERATION VIOLATIONS AND CASCADING FAILURES IN POWER SYSTEMS

Abstract

A comprehensive operational disruption and cascading failure risk assessment model for electrical equipment in power systems has been developed. The proposed model integrates a hierarchical structure of risk factors, probabilistic-statistical modeling, and fuzzy logic. This enables accounting for incomplete baseline information, the technical condi-tion and residual life of the equipment, as well as the associated failure probability during cascading outage develop-ment. Simulation results obtained using the IEEE 39-bus system are presented. References 15, figures 8, tables 3.