Evaluation of reliability indicators of microgrid decentralized sources based on statistical data
Abstract
Numerous bombings of energy facilities by the Russian aggressor indicate that the centralized power supply system cannot meet the requirements of high-tech equipment for reliable power supply and the quality of electric energy. Power outages and significant electricity undersupply force us to look for decentralized power supply options in regional power systems. The increase in the number of small power plants operating in parallel with the external network requires addressing the challenges of managing power supply reliability and electricity quality in microgrids with decentralized sources. However, at present, there are no scientifically sound approaches to construction and theoretical foundations for the study of micropower systems with decentralized sources, flexible connections between the elements of their structure, and no technical and economic solutions for reliable power supply at the level of distribution system operators. This study assesses the reliability indicators of micropower systems with decentralized sources using statistical data. It is shown that the reliability of micro-power systems with decentralized sources is characterized by the maximum permissible probability P(t), which depends on the reliability indicators of decentralized sources, united by the commonality of modes. Based on operational observations of decentralized microgrid sources, a statistical sample of the number and nature of failures and microgrid restorations, in accordance with the operational documentation, was obtained. Using statistical information on the flow of source failures under operating conditions, the time to failure and the restoration duration were modeled with an exponential distribution. The study of reliability-functional chains showed that reliability indicators largely depend on the installed power of the sources. The calculated time-to-failure values enable the establishment of specified terms of technical maintenance for decentralized sources under operating conditions.Recieved: 01.06.2025. Recieved: 10.08.2026. Accepted: 20.08.2026