Mitigation Without Adaptation: Cryosphere Risk, Hydropower, and the Climate Policy Gap in Nepal

Abstract

Background: Nepal contributes less than 0.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet ranks among the countries most exposed to the impacts of climate change. Hydropower sits at the center of the country's economy and its climate mitigation strategy. This sector, however, faces growing risk from glacial retreat and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Nepal has set ambitious climate targets, but a clear gap persists between these mitigation goals and the pace of adaptation efforts on the ground. Objective: This study examines the extent to which Nepal's climate policy instruments (NAPA, LAPA, Climate Change Policy, NDC, NAP) address cryosphere-driven risks to hydropower infrastructure and identifies barriers to effective adaptation planning. Methods: The study used a qualitative, desk-based approach. It combined a systematic literature review with documentary analysis of policy instruments and peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 and 2025. The analysis was guided by socio-ecological systems theory, adaptive governance theory, and political ecology. Results: The findings reveal a clear imbalance. Nepal has strong mitigation commitments for hydropower expansion, including the NDC target of 15,000 MW by 2030, but adaptation measures remain fragmented. Glacier loss is accelerating, with Yala Glacier losing 1.28 m water equivalent in 2022–2023. GLOF events are also becoming more frequent, with four major events recorded between 2016 and 2025. Hydropower losses have affected 625.96 MW of capacity and caused damage worth NPR 3.08 billion. Despite these risks, no policy instrument clearly assigns responsibility for glacier monitoring or requires cryosphere risk screening in hydropower development. This gap continues because of fragmented responsibilities under federalism, limited inclusion of marginalized groups, and heavy dependence on donor-funded climate finance. Conclusion: Closing the adaptation gap will require clear institutional responsibility for cryosphere risk screening, along with adaptation measures built directly into mitigation policy. Adaptation also needs to be built into mitigation policies, supported by stronger coordination among federal, provincial, and local governments. Nepal must also reduce its dependence on external climate finance. Protecting the cryosphere and strengthening the economy are not separate goals. They should be treated as a single policy agenda, with climate resilience integrated into fiscal federalism, sector planning, and public investment.