Building-level seismic risk assessment incorporating site effects and analytical fragility curves: Application to Fergana city, Uzbekistan

Abstract

A detailed inventory of residential buildings in Fergana City was compiled and classified according to structural typology, construction materials, construction period, and seismic design provisions. Analytical fragility curves were developed using nonlinear finite element analyses in Abaqus. Seismic hazard was assessed using representative earthquake scenarios associated with active faults surrounding the study area, while local site effects were incorporated using spatially distributed Vs30 values derived from Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) surveys. Seismic hazard and risk analyses were performed using the OpenQuake Engine to estimate ground-motion parameters, building damage probabilities, and direct economic losses. The results reveal pronounced spatial variations in seismic hazard and risk associated with local site conditions. Buildings located on softer soil deposits experience greater ground-motion amplification, higher probabilities of moderate-to-severe damage, and larger expected economic losses than those on stiffer ground. The developed analytical fragility functions provide locally calibrated vulnerability models for the residential building stock of Fergana City and enable building-level damage and loss assessment. The integrated methodology provides a robust framework for site-specific seismic risk assessment and supports seismic microzonation, earthquake-resistant design, urban planning, and disaster risk reduction in Fergana City.