Fractional mathematical modeling of dengue fever (DF) in Afar region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Dengue virus is a viral infection caused primarily by the bite of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, and it remains a significant global public health concern. In this study, we present a fractional mathematical model of dengue fever dynamics with harmonic-type incidence to investigate the impact of asymptomatic and hospitalized individuals on its dynamic behavior. We estimated key epidemiological parameters by fitting the model to real dengue data obtained from Afar Regional State of Ethiopia. This allows us to conduct an in-depth analysis of epidemic trends within the Afar region. Fundamental mathematical analysis is carried out, which confirms essential model properties including well-posedness of the solution. We derived both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, and their stabilities are checked. We computed the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number using the normalized forward sensitivity index to determine the most crucial parameters that contribute the most to the incidence of the disease. Numerical simulations are done to visualize the solution trajectories for studying the temporal evolution of all compartments to understand, predict, and control the disease. The simulation results indicate that vector control is mandatory because silent spread can have high mosquito infectivity.