Decadal climate predictions correctly forecast the direction of Northern Hemisphere Wind Stilling but underestimate its magnitude

Abstract

Near-surface (10 m) wind speed over land decreased on average over the Northern Hemisphere between 1980 and 2010, a phenomenon that has become known as global stilling. We show that the multi-model decadal predictions are able to capture the aforementioned decrease in wind speed from one to ten years ahead. However, the decadal predictions, and coupled models more generally, also substantially underestimate the magnitude of this long-term near-surface wind (NSW) trend. In the models, the decreasing NSW trend is driven by anthropogenic external forcings. Specifically, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations drive NSW speed trends over Europe, North America, and East Asia, while anthropogenic aerosol emissions play a key role over India and China. Despite the model limitations, decadal climate predictions could provide useful information for the energy sector with proper calibration.