CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL BLACK EARTH REGION: ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM TRENDS, ECOLOGICAL AND AGROTECHNICAL CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

The article presents a literature review devoted to the analysis of long-term climate change in the Central Black Earth Region of Russia (Belgorod, Voronezh, Tambov, Lipetsk, and Kursk Oblasts) primarily for the period 1960–2024. Based on a summary of meteorological observations, hydrological, and agrometeorological studies, the key trends are considered: increasing air temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, decreasing air humidity and the hydrothermal coefficient, reducing the duration and water content of snow cover, changing river runoff and ice regimes, intensifying hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena, as well as the responses of landscapes, soils, agricultural crop yields, and human health. It is shown that climate change is complex and nonlinear, leading to a shift in agroclimatic zones (southward shift), increasing the risks of droughts, flooding, erosion, landslides, and expanding the ranges of vector-borne diseases. A conclusion is drawn regarding the trend toward aridization, as well as the paradox of yield growth amid deteriorating climatic conditions due to technological factors. Little-studied aspects are identified, and directions for further research are proposed.