Influence of Drought Severity on Household Livelihood Strategies in Rachuonyo North Sub-County, Kenya

Abstract

Drought is a climate hazard that affects household livelihoods in rural areas where activities depend on rainfall. Studies show that when drought occurs, water becomes insufficient for livestock and crops, compelling households to cope with and adapt to its effects. However, no empirical studies have examined the influence of drought severity on household livelihood strategies. This study examined how drought severity influences household livelihood strategies, focusing on crop farming, livestock keeping, fishing, and trade. The study used Rogers's (1975) Protection Motivation Theory. The study used a mixed-methods, cross-sectional design with a quasi-longitudinal aspect, integrating qualitative and quantitative household survey data with temporal rainfall information to examine drought severity and household livelihood strategies over time. A multistage sampling procedure selected 384 household respondents from a target population of 39,927. The seven wards were treated as strata, and the sample was proportionately allocated to each ward according to the number of households. Systematic sampling was used to select households in each ward. We used purposive sampling to select KII and FGD participants. Qualitative data were analysed thematically, coding and organising them into themes, while quantitative data were analysed using cross-tabulation, chi-square, and linear regression. The SPI-12 results show an increase in severe drought events, with three occurrences between 2020 and 2025. Chi-square tests showed associations between drought severity and crop farming, livestock keeping, fishing, and trade livelihood strategies. The linear regression analysis results based on R2 values showed that livestock keeping recorded the greatest variation due to severe drought (R2=0.56, p=0.000). Crop farming was the second most influenced household livelihood strategy (R2=0.51, p=0.000), while fishing was the third (R2=0.21, p=0.000). Trade recorded the least variation due to severe drought (R2=0.21, p=0.000). Drought severity significantly influenced household livelihood strategies, highlighting the need for targeted livelihood diversification and drought-resilience interventions.