Identification of key conservation areas in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecotourism zones under climate change

Abstract

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ( QTP ) is among the most climate-sensitive alpine ecosystems globally, and identifying key conservation areas ( KCA  s) under climate change is essential for biodiversity conservation and sustainable ecotourism. Focusing on the QTP Ecotourism Zones, our study integrated species occurrence records for the Tibetan brown bear (umbrella species) and the snow leopard (flagship species) with environmental variables and multi-scenario climate projections. MaxEnt models were applied to delineate Current, Future, and Robust KCA  s and assess habitat suitability under three future emission scenarios ( RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 ) for the 2070s. Altitudinal responses, spatial habitat shifts, and habitat overlap between species were analyzed to identify potential climate refugia and multi-species conservation hotspots. Results indicated that climate change drove substantial spatial reorganization of suitable habitats across KCA  s: snow leopards experienced the greatest habitat loss in Future KCA  s, whereas brown bear habitats remained relatively stable under low- and medium-emission scenarios but contracted under RCP8.5 . Robust KCA  s maintained high stability across scenarios, highlighting their value as potential climate refugia and priority conservation zones. The Current–Future–Robust KCA framework provides an integrated approach for identifying multi-species conservation priorities under climate change, providing scientific support for spatial planning and species conservation in the QTP Ecotourism Zones.