Rainfall Trends in the Bundelkhand Region of India over 121 Years

Abstract

This study examined the long-term (1901-2021) spatio-temporal rainfall trends across 13 districts in the Bundelkhand region of central India. Gridded rainfall data of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) were analyzed using both parametric (Mann-Kendall, Spearman’s Rho) and non-parametric (Simple Linear Regression) approaches, to detect monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall trends. Statistical tests showed a significant decreasing trend of rainfall in the region. The months of April to June have significantly increasing trends, while in the rest of the months, only decreasing trends were significant. Also, only decreasing trends were significant in seasonal rainfall and annual rainfall. The study area as a whole had a significant decrease in monsoon and annual rainfall. The Sen’s slope indicated declining monsoon and annual rainfall at the rate of -1.064 and -1.316 mm/year (p <0.001), whereas the slope of linear regression depicted a declining monsoon and annual rainfall of the region at the rate of -0.894 mm/year (p <0.1) and -1.031 mm/year (p <0.05), respectively. The results reveal the growing vulnerability of agriculture and the need for climate-resilient adaptation strategies in the semi-arid region of Bundelkhand. The decline in rainfall observed highlights significant practical and policy implications for water and agricultural management and planning in this region.