ASSESSING PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS AFTER THE U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE POST-2021 TALIBAN ERA  

Abstract

The withdrawal of United States and NATO forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, and the Taliban's rapid return to power, altered the strategic environment within which Pakistan formulates its Afghan policy. This study examines how the resulting shifts in geopolitics, security, and economic opportunity have reshaped Pakistan's foreign policy choices toward its western neighbour, and it identifies the openings that the new order has created alongside the risks it carries. The paper is organized around three questions: what factors continue to drive Pakistan's Afghan policy in the post-withdrawal period; what opportunities the Taliban administration presents for bilateral cooperation; and how the two states might move toward a more stable and mutually beneficial relationship. A qualitative, document-based design was adopted, drawing on peer-reviewed scholarship, government and think-tank publications, and regional policy analyses published mainly after 2021, which were read thematically around four recurring dimensions: geopolitics, security, economic interdependence, and regional diplomacy. The analysis shows that the unresolved status of the Durand Line, the persistence of cross-border militancy associated with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, and the competing involvement of India, China, Russia, Iran, and residual Western interests continue to constrain Islamabad's options, even as Afghanistan's position as a potential land bridge between Central and South Asia opens genuine prospects for trade and connectivity through projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline. The study concludes that Pakistan's Afghan policy remains predominantly security-driven, but that durable stability is more likely to follow from parallel progress on border management, regulated trade, and sustained diplomatic engagement with Taliban and regional stakeholders than from security measures alone. The findings extend the still-limited post-2021 literature on Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and offer policy-relevant guidance on managing militancy, normalizing trade, and recalibrating the strategic-depth framework to reflect the realities of a Taliban-governed Afghanistan.