Impact of Carbon Emissions on Sustainable Development of Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries

Abstract

This paper examined the impact of carbon emissions on sustainable development in selected Sub-Saharan African countries, namely South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, and Kenya, over the period 1999 to 2025. The paper adopted a longitudinal research design, while the analysis was estimated using the panel fully modified ordinary least squares technique. The findings revealed that industrial process carbon emissions had a negative but statistically insignificant impact on sustainable development, implying that although industrial emission increases tended to correspond with lower human development outcomes, the influence was not strong enough to establish a definite long-run impact across the selected countries. This showed that the industrial sector had not consistently translated carbon-intensive production into broad-based improvements in welfare. In contrast, transport carbon emissions had a positive and statistically significant impact on sustainable development, indicating that rising emissions from transport were associated with improvements in human development. The implication was that mobility, market access, and transport-linked economic activities are still playing an important role in supporting education, healthcare access, income generation, and overall welfare, though through carbon-intensive systems. Similarly, building carbon emissions exerted a positive and statistically significant impact on sustainable development, suggesting that expansion in housing, commercial infrastructure, and energy use in the built environment contributed meaningfully to human development. This implied that better shelter, urban services, and electrification were enhancing welfare, even though these gains were accompanied by higher emissions. The paper recommended that the selected countries should pursue cleaner industrialization through stricter emissions standards and green industrial financing, decarbonize transport systems through mass transit investment and cleaner vehicle policies. They should also enforce energy-efficient building regulations to reduce the carbon intensity of urban development while sustaining improvements in human welfare.