Novel bat algorithm for short-term peak load forecasting in Sulselrabar electricity system

Abstract

This study addresses short-term load forecasting (STLF) in the South, Southeast, and West Sulawesi (Sulselrabar) power system, Indonesia, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic (IT2FL) optimized by the proposed novel bat algorithm (NBA). The NBA is employed to optimize the footprint of uncertainty (FOU) of the fuzzy membership functions for both antecedent (X and Y) and consequent (Z) variables. The forecasting model utilizes daily peak load data from the previous four days (d−4 to d−1) to predict the peak load of the forecast day (d). To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, NBA is benchmarked against particle swarm optimization (PSO), firefly algorithm (FA), and cuckoo search algorithm (CSA). The results demonstrate that the proposed IT2FL–NBA model provides the highest forecasting accuracy among the evaluated methods, achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.5650%. In comparison, IT2FL–PSO, IT2FL–FA, and IT2FL–CSA achieve MAPEs of 1.6353%, 1.6451%, and 1.6353%, respectively. For type-1 fuzzy logic (IT1FL), the NBA, PSO, FA, and CSA optimization methods produce MAPEs of 1.6668%, 1.6842%, 1.6805%, and 1.6768%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that optimizing the FOU of IT2FL using the proposed NBA significantly improves forecasting accuracy and provides a robust and reliable approach for STLF in power systems.