ATTRACTING INVESTMENT INTO THE GREEN ECONOMY OF UZBEKISTAN: DETERMINANTS, INSTRUMENTS AND THE FINANCING GAP
Abstract
The article examines the mobilization of investment into Uzbekistan's green economy over 2016-2025 and identifies the factors that actually determine volume of green capital inflows. The aim of the study is to establish whether green investment responds primarily to the sovereign cost of capital or to the quality of the sectoral institutional framework in order to measure the residual financing gap and to formulate priority directions for investment policy. A log-linear ordinary least squares model with an author-constructed green institutional framework index, a financing gap calculation against the OECD benchmark of six billion US dollars per year and a structural analysis of green financing instruments are applied. The results show that the institutional framework is the dominant determinant (semi-elasticity 0.524, p < 0.001, R² = 0.981), whereas the sovereign risk premium is statistically insignificant (p = 0.455), because green projects are financed at project level under long-term offtake contracts and development bank risk mitigation rather than at sovereign terms. The financing gap has effectively closed in electricity generation but remains open in water, transport, waste and building efficiency and committed capital is highly concentrated on two sponsors. Five priority directions with 2030 target values are proposed