Global Change and Disease in Wild Populations

Abstract

Diseases of wild populations can have major ecosystem consequences. Biodiversity can moderate disease burden through dilution or amplification effects, and diseases themselves can pose a threat to biodiversity, increasing extinction risks. Here we review expectations for how infectious diseases may interact with the primary axes of global change driving biodiversity loss—habitat transformation and fragmentation, invasive species, overexploitation, pollution, and climate change—through the lens of epidemiological models. For each driver, we identify key features and model parameters and illustrate how mathematical models allow us to capture the complex, nonlinear dynamics of disease in natural populations. Theory suggests that global change is likely to increase disease burden via changes in interspecific contact rates and physiological stress; however, habitat fragmentation and host population declines may lower disease prevalence. While addressing global change drivers requires significant socioeconomic transformations, insights from well-informed epidemiological models will allow us to design conservation solutions to mitigate some of the negative consequences of disease.