Assessing Climate Village Program Sustainability Using Multidimensional Scaling

Abstract

Climate change poses severe threats to rural socio ecological systems, necessitating decentralized, community based climate action. While Indonesia’s Climate Village Program (ProKlim) serves as a primary local adaptation and mitigation policy, conventional evaluative methods rely heavily on descriptive scorecards, obscuring multidimensional dynamics and the systemic role of stakeholder partnerships. This study addresses these gaps by implementing an integrated evaluation framework that combines Sustainability Transition Theory, Collaborative Governance, and Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) via the modified Rapfish technique. We assessed 20 validated attributes across institutional, social, economic, and environmental dimensions using perceptual data from 30 systematically selected stakeholders involved in the Pentahelix partnership model in Wonocoyo Village, Trenggalek Regency. The multidimensional sustainability index scored 58.36 (moderately sustainable). At the dimensional level, institutional governance achieved the highest score (77.23, highly sustainable), followed by environmental quality (67.65) and social dynamics (52.14). Conversely, the economic dimension recorded a less sustainable score (36.42), reflecting systemic barriers in converting ecological actions into tangible financial welfare. Leverage analysis highlighted program monitoring and evaluation, community mutual cooperation (gotong royong), local economic benefits, and the continuity of environmental initiatives as critical anchor attributes. Goodness of fit metrics (Stress = 0.15 - 0.16; R2 = 0.90 - 0.93) and Monte Carlo simulations confirmed model stability. These findings establish that high institutional capability alone cannot guarantee localized socio ecological transformations without explicit economic feedback loops, offering scalable governance insights for national decentralized climate targets.