Investigating the Risk Factor of Measles (A Case Study of Sir Yahaya Memorial Hospital, Birnin Kebbi, Kebbi State, Nigeria)

Abstract

Measles remains a significant public health concern in Nigeria, particularly in regions with limited healthcare infrastructure, especially in North Western Nigeria. Therefore, this study investigated the risk factors linked to Measles in Sir Yahaya Memorial Hospital, Birnin Kebbi, Kebbi State. A total of 108 confirmed cases were selected, finding that 70 were active (64.8%) and 38 inactive 35.2% for the measles outcome. Both respondents, males and females each accounted for 54 cases (50.0%). Most respondents (66.7%) were not vaccinated and (33.3%) were vaccinated. Binary Logistic Regression was used for the analysis. The results revealed that Vaccination Status acts as a powerful protective factor, indicated by a strong negative coefficient (B = -2.87, p < 0.001). Clinical Symptoms: Both rash (B = 3.45, p < 0.001) and cough (B = 1.36, p = 0.019) significantly increase the likelihood of a positive measles diagnosis. Fever shows high joint significance (Wald = 18.62, p < 0.001), with higher fever levels consistently raising the probability of infection. Age, displays a modest but statistically significant positive correlation (B = 0.07, p = 0.020), where risk slightly rises with age. However, Sex was found to be statistically insignificant, suggesting that it is not a risk factors for measles. Also, demographic variables like gender plays a negligible role. The model fitting criteria showed a significant improvement in predicting measles, with the final model having a lower Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 24.970 and a Chi-Square statistic of 68.619 (p-value = 0.000), indicating a strong fit. The findings highlighted the need for targeted healthcare programmes and policies in Kebbi State, providing valuable insights for global measles research and emphasizing the importance of community-specific strategies to lessen the burden of breast cancer.