Energy Transition, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Biodiversity: Global Assessment

Abstract

Climate and biodiversity policies remain compartmentalized, often generating perverse trade‐offs. We assess whether the energy transition can reconcile the mitigation‐conservation tension to deliver measurable biodiversity benefits, and identify the underlying mediating mechanisms. We construct a 2000–2022 global panel, utilizing the Red List Index, renewable energy share, and greenhouse gas emissions for extinction risk, energy transition, and the mediator, respectively. Mediation analysis evaluates the emission‐reduction transmission mechanism, and geographically weighted temporal regression captures spatial heterogeneity. Robustness is confirmed via instrumental variable and Bayesian estimations. Results indicate that renewable energy reduces extinction risk through greenhouse gas emission reduction. The effect of renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions is nonlinear, weakening at higher levels. This protective effect is more pronounced in Europe than in Africa. By integrating energy, climate, and biodiversity studied separately, our findings synergize Race to Zero, Paris Agreement, and Kunming‐Montreal GBF, providing empirical support for SDGs 13 and 15.