Effect of Agricultural Output on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1990-2022

Abstract

This paper assessed the effect of agricultural sector output on economic growth in Nigeria. Background: Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa with huge arable land, but is unfortunately facing food importation and high cost of domestic food. Agriculture contributed 63.8% to GDP by 1960 but have dropped so low to average of 24% from 2020 to 2022. Commercial banks loans & advances to this sector stood at 6% in 2021 and 2022 which is considered low. Aims: The specific objectives were to assess the effect of: crop production; livestock; forestry and fishing output on gross domestic product of Nigeria. Methods: This study adopted the ex-post facto research design. Annual time series data were obtained from CBN bulletin, 2022 and analyzed using descriptive statistics and ordinary least square. The hypotheses were tested at 5% level of significance. Results: Crop production had a positive (0.057245) and non-significant effect (0.9417); Livestock output had a positive (27.64295) and significant effect (0.0321); Forestry output had positive (161.2027) and non-significant effect (0.2081); Fishing had a positive (30.14201) and significant effect (0.0001) on GDP for the period reviewed. The probability (f-statistic) was 0.000000 while adjusted R2 value was 92.9%. Conclusion: The variables used in the study are found to be relevant in explaining agricultural sector effect on economic growth of Nigeria. Recommendation:Government and agriculturists should strive for more financing, improved variety inputs and right policies to sustain and improve the significant effect of agriculture on GDP in Nigeria.