Multiple Myeloma in Mexico, 1990-2023: Trends in Incidence, Mortality, and Disability Burden.

Background

Multiple myeloma (MM) results in significant mortality and disability; however, long-term trends and forecasts specific to Mexico remain insufficiently characterized.

Methods

A secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for Mexico (1990-2023) was conducted. Incidence, prevalence, deaths, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs were summarized as counts and age-standardized rates (per 100,000) with 95% uncertainty intervals. Temporal trends were examined using Joinpoint regression. Forecasts for 2024-2040 were generated using SPSS Expert Modeler and evaluated using a 5-year retrospective holdout analysis. To contextualize burden by development, correlations between national SDI and age-standardized outcomes were analyzed.

Results

Incident MM cases increased from 457.58 in 1990-1,795.96 in 2023, and the age-standardized incidence rate rose from 1.04-1.28 per 100,000. Prevalent cases increased from 941.58-4,484.50, with an increase in age-standardized prevalence from 2.03-3.16 per 100,000. Age-standardized mortality changed modestly. DALYs were mainly driven by YLLs, while YLDs increased over time; substantial state-level heterogeneity was observed in 2023. SDI correlated positively with burden indicators, most strongly with age-standardized prevalence and YLD rates. Retrospective validation showed that the Brown models did not outperform a naïve benchmark and had low prediction interval coverage. Consequently, long-term extrapolations were considered exploratory.

Conclusions

MM burden in Mexico has increased over the past three decades. While the mortality-dominated burden remains stable, the disability burden is growing. Descriptive development-related gradients and geographic heterogeneity suggest areas of variation relevant to service planning. Findings should be interpreted as patterns in GBD-estimated burden trajectories rather than directly observed surveillance trends.