Behavioural and Socioeconomic Determinants of Smallholder Potato Farmers’ Intention to Adopt Wrap-and-Plant Technology in Nyandarua County, Kenya

Abstract

Agricultural technology adoption involves farmers’ evaluations of innovations and the socioeconomic conditions within which adoption decisions are made. This study examines the behavioural and socioeconomic/demographic determinants of smallholder potato farmers’ baseline intention to adopt Wrap-and-Plant (WAP) technology for potato cyst nematode management in Nyandarua County, Kenya. The study formulates the Behavioural Foundations of Agricultural Technology Adoption (BFATA) framework, an integrative conceptual framework synthesising the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and Diffusion of Innovations Theory (DIT) to explain how perceptions of an agricultural innovation contribute to behavioural intention. Primary data from 431 smallholder potato farmers in Kinangop, Kipipiri and Ol’Jororok were analysed. Adoption intention was measured on a five-point ordered scale. Attitude was constructed as a Min–Max-normalised behavioural index, while gender, credit access, household size, log per-capita income, education and total land size were included as socioeconomic and demographic controls. An ordered probit model with robust standard errors was estimated to preserve the ordinal nature of the intention outcome. Attitude was positively and significantly associated with the latent propensity to report stronger adoption intention (β=1.701; robust SE=0.144; p<0.001). Gender was marginally significant (β=0.281; p=0.059), while credit access, household size, income, education and land size were statistically insignificant. The model was jointly significant (LR χ²=192.18; p<0.001), with pseudo-R²=0.231 and log-likelihood of −319.355. The findings indicate that behavioural evaluation provides stronger evidence of variation in baseline WAP adoption intention than conventional socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. BFATA provides an integrative interpretation by positioning innovation perceptions and behavioural evaluation within the process through which farmers form adoption intentions, providing the study’s principal conceptual contribution. The results suggest that early-stage technology promotion should emphasise informed evaluation and evidence-based demonstration, while recognising that determinants of intention need not be identical to constraints affecting realised adoption.