REVIEW OF STUDIES ON THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES: CLIMATE MODELS AND SCENARIOS

Abstract

The impacts of contemporary climate change are causing a significant transformation of the hydrogeological cycle, reflected in altered patterns of surface and groundwater flow, fluctuations in groundwater levels, and an increasing risk of water scarcity. Numerous international studies aim to forecast how climate change will affect water resources, assessing both quantitative and qualitative aspects. However, the current level of understanding of the interactions between surface and groundwater–particularly in the context of evaluating water-resource changes at local and global scales–remains insufficient, complicating the development of reliable predictive models.  The purpose of this review is to synthesize findings from scientific studies conducted mainly in countries with climatic and physical-geographical conditions similar to those of Ukraine, in order to identify which aspects of climate change may exert the greatest influence on Ukraine’s water resources. The article analyzes climate models, potential shift scenarios, and their impact on groundwater resources. The discussion outlines the climate scenarios relevant for Ukraine and the models used to study projected climate impacts.  This work is dedicated to the cherished memory of Viacheslav Mykhailovych Shestopalov – mentor, colleague, and friend – with whom the idea for this study was discussed in 2022, marking our last scientific conversation.