Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Medicinal Plants of Gentiana Sect. Cruciata in China Under Climate Change
Abstract
Species in Gentiana sect. Cruciata (Gentianaceae) are usually used as a bulk medicinal herb with multiple clinical therapeutic functions, yet wild populations have declined drastically due to overharvesting and environmental changes, prompting urgent conservation demands. This study collected occurrence records of eight sect. Cruciata species and integrated forty-two environmental variables. MaxEnt models were optimized using the “kuenm” R package v. 3.6.3 to predict their potential suitable areas under current and future climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585), followed by analyses of spatial pattern changes and centroid migration. Results showed that all optimized models achieved average AUC > 0.9, indicating high prediction accuracy. Elevation, annual precipitation, human footprint index, and temperature seasonality dominantly affected the species distribution, with distinct limiting factor combinations revealing interspecific niche differentiation. Based on the prediction, the eight gentian species exhibited three divergent climate response types: climate-sensitive G. macrophylla suffered severe, irreversible habitat loss with long-distance centroid migration; five stable-adaptive species (G. straminea, G. crassicaulis, G. tibetica, G. robusta, and G. siphonantha) maintained stable core ranges and partial expansion capacity; G. dahurica and G. officinalis followed a “contraction-then-recovery” trajectory. The eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, Hengduan Mountains, Qinling Mountains, and the Gansu–Qinghai–Sichuan border represented core conservation zones for the sect. Cruciata species. Highly adaptive G. crassicaulis, G. tibetica, and G. straminea were prioritized for conservation and artificial propagation. This study revealed the differentiated responses and adaptation potentials of medicinal plants of Gentiana sect. Cruciata to climate change, providing a scientific basis for precise germplasm conservation and rational cultivation layout for sustainable medicinal resource utilization.