Multi-Scale High-Resolution Mapping of Wildfire Hotspots and Fire-Prone Areas Using Earth Observation and Atmospheric Modeling

Abstract

Understanding where and why wildfires occur is essential for assessing fire danger and supporting mitigation strategies. This study proposes a spatiotemporal map to represent wildfire activity and support fire danger assessment in two fire-prone regions: Central–North Portugal and the Paraná Delta, Argentina. Active fire observations spanning over 10 years were analyzed using spatial network theory and graph-based clustering to map regional patterns and identify persistent and emerging hotspots. To complement this, high-resolution Meso-NH simulations at 0.5 km resolution were conducted for selected events, including the Arouca and Trancoso fires in Portugal and two events in the Paraná Delta. The maps reveal that the central areas of both regions are the most fire-prone. Small areas in Portugal emerged as regions of increasing activity and potential future recurrence, while the Paraná Delta showed a progressive northward expansion of fire activity. The historical hotspot map was complemented by atmospheric conditions obtained from the numerical simulations to reflect meteorological fire danger. The high-resolution numerical simulations can provide key insights into areas with elevated danger, demonstrating that integrating Earth observation data and numerical modeling is highly effective for wildfire management and risk assessment.