Systemic Complementarities in Sustainability Transitions: Energy Governance, Transportation Efficiency, and Sustainable Competitiveness

Abstract

Sustainability transitions are increasingly shaped by the interaction between infrastructure systems and institutional frameworks, yet empirical evidence on how these complementarities influence outcomes remains limited. This study examines the relationship between energy governance and transportation efficiency, focusing on whether their interaction generates non-linear effects on sustainability performance. Using panel data from 110 countries for 2019–2024, we employ fixed-effects models with interaction terms to evaluate both competitiveness and distributional outcomes. The results reveal three main findings. (1) We find no statistically significant evidence, at conventional levels, of a “Green Multiplier” interaction between energy governance and transportation efficiency (β = 0.0057, p = 0.102), although the available governance and infrastructure indicators are reported at a lower frequency than the annual panel employed in this study, limiting statistical power for detecting interaction effects. (2) Contrary to the hypothesized compensatory logic, ground transportation efficiency and air connectivity show a significant positive interaction (β = 0.026, p = 0.039), indicating complementarity rather than substitution between transport modes. (3) Once income is correctly controlled for, infrastructure development shows no significant direct association with access to clean energy, in either direction. These findings advance sustainability transition research by providing rigorously specified evidence on infrastructure–governance interactions, showing that some previously hypothesized complementarities do not hold at conventional significance levels. In contrast, others (ground–air transport complementarity) emerge in directions contrary to prior theoretical expectations. The results caution against inferring the governance-contingent effectiveness of green investments from associational panel evidence alone and instead point to the value of transparent, fully reproducible specification reporting in this literature.