ESTIMATES OF CRUDE AND ADJUSTED INCIDENCE RATES OF NEW ORAL CAVITY CANCER CASES FOR THE YEAR 2026 IN AMAZONAS

Abstract

Introduction: Oral cavity cancer is a malignant disease with an increasing incidence in Brazil and worldwide. It is well established that the primary risk factors are tobacco and alcohol use—harmful habits prevalent in Brazilian society. Objective: To present estimated crude and adjusted incidence rates for new cases of oral cavity cancer in Amazonas for the year 2026. Methodology: This is a descriptive study using a quantitative approach based on public data. All data were obtained directly from the National Cancer Institute (INCA) 2025 reports on crude and adjusted incidence rates. Variables analyzed include projected case numbers in cities within the Northern Region, sex, cancer type, and incidence (both crude and adjusted rates) for 2026. Results: Although cervical, prostate, and female breast cancers are the most common, the estimated number of oral cavity neoplasm cases for 2026—based on crude and adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants and the number of new cases by sex and primary site—is 17,190 for Brazil, with a crude rate of 7.98 and an adjusted rate of 5.23. For Amazonas, the forecast is 150 new cases—with 110 occurring in the capital, Manaus—showing a crude rate of 3.31 and an adjusted rate of 4.38. The projected total is 90 cases among men and 60 among women for this specific period. Conclusion: To reduce crude and adjusted rates, it is essential to implement a set of integrated strategies encompassing primary and secondary prevention as well as public policies.