A Techno-Economic Study on the Planning of Solar Power Plant Upgrades Using the AHP Method on Neira Island, Central Maluku

Abstract

Maluku Province has significant solar energy potential; however, the utilization of the Solar Power Plant (Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya [PLTS]) on Banda Neira Island has remained suboptimal because the facility, which was originally constructed in 2012, ceased operation in 2017. This condition has resulted in continued dependence on Diesel Power Plants (Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Diesel [PLTD]), which contribute to high carbon emissions. This study aimed to determine the optimal rehabilitation scenario for the PLTS through a techno-economic assessment using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Three hybrid PLTS configurations (PV+BESS+PLTD) were modeled using PVSyst and HOMER Pro software, with photovoltaic (PV) capacities of 360 kWp, 480 kWp, and 1,200 kWp, respectively. The optimal alternative was selected based on eight criteria: system reliability, facility complexity, fuel consumption reduction, capital expenditure (CAPEX), internal rate of return (IRR), levelized cost of energy (LCOE), carbon emission reduction, and land availability. The analysis showed that Scenario 2, consisting of a 480 kWp PV system integrated with a 1,610 kWh battery energy storage system (BESS), achieved the highest overall score. This scenario resulted in a performance ratio of 80.43%, an IRR of 19%, a return on investment (ROI) of 15.2%, and a payback period of less than five years. Furthermore, it reduced carbon emissions by approximately 530,469 kg CO₂ annually, representing a 9% reduction compared with the existing diesel-based system. These findings demonstrate that Scenario 2 provides the optimal balance among technical, economic, and environmental considerations.